EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

EUR/JPY continues to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, rebound from 95.64 could extend higher with 98.53 minor support intact. Above 99.96 minor resistance will flip bias to the upside for 101.62 and above. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 108.00 to 95.64 at 103.27 and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 95.83 should now indicate that larger decline from 111.43 is resuming and should flip bias back to the downside for 95.64 and below.

In the bigger picture, the larger down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower towards 90 psychological level. However, as we’re favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we’ll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal in case of another decline. Meanwhile, break of 104.61 will be the first signal of reversal while further break of 111.43 should confirm.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart



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