Forex Signal (Thursday August 18, 2011 NY TIME 4:30am EDT – UK Retail Sales

UK Retail Sales
Forecast 0.3%
Previous 0.7%
Pair to trade: GBP/USD
Estimated Pips: 40-50 on Initial Spike

The numbers we will look for:
BUY GBP/USD if we get a positive deviation of 2.0 or more
SELL GBP/USD if we get a negative deviation of -1.0% or more

Economical Impact: High (will bring strong volatility)
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends

About our Triggers:
We will be looking for a deviation of 2.0 % to BUY and a negative -1.0 to SELL. If our deviation is hit, there is a strong possibility that the market will move 50 pips immediately either way, with a double spike before an initial retracement of 30%.

What is it?
The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP

Why does the market care?
It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. This is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

Approximately 5 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term LONG position using GBP/USD pair.
I would be out of this LONG trade 1 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame. I expect to be in this trade for a total of 45 mins (approx).

I do recommend spike trading as an option if you have an Auto clicker. Spike trading is great when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

Historical Chart and Data UK Retail Sales

All the best

Comments

  1. Juan Gomez says:

    I want to learn more about forex but I have fear of destroying my own, anyone know any trader can trust me to operate safely? my email: juan4563@gmail.com

  2. just have a focus and definetely the sky will be your limit

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