Forex Signal (Wed March 2 2011, 8:15am NY Time EST) – US ADP NFP Changes – Today, 04:53 AM

ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 180K Previous 187K
ACTION: 230K BUY USDJPY / 130K BUY EURUSD

The Trade Plan
I usually don’t trade this release but I use its figure for future trend references, however if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.

With the above being said, we’ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 230K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 130K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD… I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.

In the event that we do get our deviation, we’ll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry’s Retracement Trading Method.

The Market
With NFP jobs forecasted at +175K it is likely that we will get 180K ADP Figure as forecasted… as a matter of fact, considering the ISM Manufacturing PMI’s employment component, I would expect no less.

Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.

Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release.

Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP

Thanks,

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