Forex Signal (Tue March 1, 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) – UK Manufacturing PMI – Today, 03:49 AM

Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it’s usually released during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 61.5 Previous 62.0
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 63.5 SELL 59.0

The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..), market usually reacts to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.

We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 63.5 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 59.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry’s News Trading Method

The Market
It seems that GBP is currently well supported despite of the worse than expected GDP release for the 4th quarter in 2010… As a matter of fact, with the ever increasing inflationary pressure, most speculators are expecting BOE‘s move to be hiking interest rate.

If we do get a strong release, we’d be seeing a rather positive sign in the UK economy, which means that in addition to inflationary pressures, we are also going to have much better fundamental outlook.

Additional Thoughts
Officially we are going to be trading Retracement Trade, but if we get a deviation of 4.0 points, it justifies for a spike trade.

Pre-news Considerations
There should be no pre-news for this release.

DEFINITION
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”

Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI

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